Trade Review and Euro Trading Tips

The test of the 1.1336 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I didn't sell the euro. I didn't receive any other entry signals either.

Despite weak IFO figures from Germany and the eurozone, which failed to support EUR/USD's upward movement, the market managed to avoid significant losses. In the near term, EUR/USD could continue rising, but this depends heavily on upcoming economic reports and statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. Any signals of tighter monetary policy or positive changes in the eurozone economy could push EUR/USD higher. However, one shouldn't ignore the risks tied to global economic instability and Donald Trump's geopolitical agenda, with his daily threats of new tariffs.

Today's Empire Manufacturing Index and U.S. Import Price Index releases may influence the market. Only significantly strong readings could spark increased demand for the dollar. If the figures disappoint, pressure on the dollar will resume, and the euro may continue climbing.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenario #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at around 1.1350 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 1.1418. At 1.1418, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. This trade is in line with the continuation of the bullish trend.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1311 level while MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and signal a reversal upward. A rise to the 1.1350 and 1.1418 levels can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1311 (red line on the chart), with a target at 1.1259. There, I'll exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure will return if U.S. economic data is strong.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1350 level while MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and signal a downward reversal. A drop to the 1.1311 and 1.1259 levels can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested take-profit level or price to manually lock in gains, as further growth is unlikely beyond this point.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested take-profit level or price to manually lock in gains, as further decline is unlikely beyond this point.
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's crucial to assess overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notice for Beginners:

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when entering the market. It's best to stay out of trades before the release of key fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to rapid account depletion, especially if you don't practice proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you need a well-defined trading plan—just like the one provided above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.