Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 143.25 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero line, confirming a correct buy entry point. As a result, the pair rose by more than 25 points.

However, the probability of further dollar strengthening looks low. After the morning spike, the momentum is likely to fade. In the second half of the day, we await the Empire Manufacturing Index and U.S. Import Price Index, which are of little interest to traders—bad news for the dollar.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, serves as a barometer of the economic health of the manufacturing sector in New York State. Its fluctuations can provide valuable insights into the U.S. economy overall. However, since it reflects only one state, broad conclusions about the entire sector should not be drawn.

For the intraday strategy, I'll primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today after reaching the entry point around 143.41 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 143.94 (thicker green line). Around 143.94, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. Buying the pair today only makes sense after strong U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 142.93 level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward 143.41 and 143.94 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below 142.93 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 142.44, where I will exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair may appear at any moment today.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 143.41 level, with the MACD in the overbought zone. This would cap the upward potential and cause a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 142.93 and 142.44 can be expected.

Chart Guide:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing a Take Profit or locking in profit manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing a Take Profit or locking in profit manually, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to refer to overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

Beginner traders in the Forex market must make very cautious decisions when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market before key economic reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market moves are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.