Analisis Forex & Kajian: 01.04.2025 - Bitcoin caught in bull trap

01.04.2025 03:58 PM

Bitcoin caught in bull trap

The bottom shows no strength, the top has no desire. Even the so-called "smart money" is not rushing to buy Bitcoin, citing a confluence of negative factors. Tepid trading activity, a tense macroeconomic backdrop, and a lack of upside momentum have created what the market calls a "bull trap". If big players are holding back, what can we expect from smaller market participants?

Crypto market volume trends

In the fourth quarter, Bitcoin lost around 10% of its value — not a terrible performance compared to broader crypto assets. Ethereum plunged 45%, and Coinbase shares fell 31%. This marked the worst performance since 2022, when the FTX collapse sent shockwaves through the entire digital asset industry.

Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum and other competitors largely due to increased attention from the White House. Donald Trump has announced the creation of a strategic reserve, and his family is launching mining ventures. They are clearly betting on a BTC/USD rally, but it is too early to call. In the futures market, hedging is ramping up to protect against a drop below the psychologically crucial $80,000 level. Meanwhile, the spread between spot and derivatives has dipped into negative territory, signaling a bearish market tone.

BTC futures vs spot market premium

Persistent geopolitical instability, looming risks of a US stagflation or recession, and the potential escalation of trade tariffs are casting a shadow over BTC/USD. Bitcoin remains mired in consolidation, and even if it manages to break out, there is no guarantee that it will be to the upside.

Much depends on how equity markets respond to "America's Liberation Day," as Trump has dubbed April 2. Two scenarios are in play: either the White House enacts universal 20% tariffs, or it goes with so-called reciprocal tariffs on selected imports. The former could shock markets and trigger a sell-off in riskier assets. The latter could extend the S&P 500's recent rally and throw Bitcoin bulls a much-needed lifeline.

In short, the fate of Bitcoin — and that of other assets — remains in the hands of Donald Trump. How aggressive will he be with protectionism? Will he offer exemptions, sparing some countries from the tariff blacklist? The answers are just days away. "Liberation Day" is approaching.

Technically, on the daily BTC/USD chart, bulls are trying to form and activate a combination of reversal patterns — Anti-Turtles and 1-2-3. A successful test of the $84,800 resistance level would strengthen the bullish case and open the door to building long Bitcoin positions.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Marek Petkovich,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Mengapa Harga Emas Boleh Menurun Secara Signifikan? (Terdapat kemungkinan emas akan terus merosot manakala CFD pada kontrak niaga hadapan NASDAQ 100 mungkin meningkat)

Gambaran GBP/USD – 25 April: Fed Mula Bimbang Dengan Serius

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 25 April: Amerika Syarikat Memfailkan Saman Terhadap Trump

Apakah yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 25 April? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Yen Kelihatan Semakin Kuat

Kanada Menunggu Keputusan Pilihan Raya. Tinjauan USD/CAD

Wall Street memastikan Rumah Putih tetap terkawal

USD/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

XAU/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Trump Sedang Bermain Permainan di Mana Semua Pihak Rugi

Analisis terbaik