empty
08.04.2025 10:53 AM
Forecast for GBP/USD on April 8, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Monday and ended the day near the 1.2709 level. Over just two trading days, the pound dropped by roughly 500 points. A rebound from the 1.2709 level allowed the pound to recover toward the resistance zone of 1.2788–1.2801. A rebound from this zone would favor the US dollar and signal a resumption of the decline toward 1.2709 and 1.2642. A breakout above 1.2810 would allow for continued recovery toward 1.2865 and 1.2931.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure is absolutely clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, and the new downward wave easily broke the last low. This may suggest that the trend is shifting to a bearish one. However, given recent events, the strength of the moves, and the frequency of reversals, I wouldn't rush to such conclusions. In my opinion, market sentiment may shift multiple times again. Everything depends on how the trade war unfolds.

The news background on Monday had no impact on trader sentiment and could not have had any, since there were no economic events in either the US or the UK. All news concerned tariffs, tariffs, and more tariffs. It is unclear to me how the majority of traders concluded that it was time to buy the dollar. The dollar had been sold off for months, and every new escalation in the trade war led to another decline in the US currency. In the past two days, the dollar has confidently strengthened, and bears have been active — but this movement raises more questions than answers. Today, we can likely expect new statements from Donald Trump, EU leaders, China, and other countries unwilling to accept the new trade reality. These headlines will be decisive for all global markets. At this point, chart analysis cannot be used to open trades without clear alignment with the news.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair still maintains a bullish trend. Even a move below the ascending channel in the near term wouldn't yet suggest a trend reversal. The trade war continues to escalate, and in recent months this has only led to dollar weakness. Therefore, the recent dollar strength looks unusual. One way or another, chart analysis alone cannot answer what to expect next. The news background is what drives the market.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bullish in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,030, while short positions increased by 5,627. Bears lost their edge in the market. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 35,000 in favor of the bulls: 105,000 vs. 70,000.

In my view, the pound still has downward potential, but recent developments may prompt a longer-term market reversal. Over the past three months, the number of long positions rose from 80,000 to 105,000, while short positions fell from 80,000 to 70,000. More importantly, in the last nine weeks, long positions rose from 59,000 to 105,000, and short positions dropped from 81,000 to 70,000.

News Calendar for the US and the UK:

There are no notable entries in Tuesday's economic calendar. As a result, the news background is not expected to influence trader sentiment today. However, developments related to the trade war throughout the day could have a strong impact.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

I would advise selling the pair today on a rebound from the 1.2788–1.2801 zone on the hourly chart with targets at 1.2709 and 1.2642. Buying is possible on a breakout above 1.2810 on the hourly chart with targets at 1.2865 and 1.2931. However, keep in mind that market conditions are currently extremely chaotic.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.2809–1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback