Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1375 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the validity of a long entry point in support of the ongoing bullish trend. As a result, the pair gained only about 20 pips before demand subsided.

March's U.S. Producer Price Index data surprised market participants and the Federal Reserve, showing a sharp decline contrary to economists' expectations for growth. This news negatively affected the U.S. dollar and supported demand for the euro. The unexpected drop in the index increased optimism about a continued slowdown in U.S. inflation, which could prompt the Fed to take a more cautious stance on interest rate policy. Investors interpreted the report as a catalyst for acquiring riskier assets.

Today, the euro has a chance to continue its upward movement, as no significant economic releases are scheduled apart from the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. In this context, the lack of significant data may support the EUR/USD pair.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today upon reaching around 1.1397 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1500. At 1.1500, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip retracement from the entry point. Anticipate further euro strength in the first half of the day as the upward trend continues.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price at 1.1348 is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will likely limit the downside potential and lead to a reversal upward. In this case, expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1397 and 1.1500.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1348 level (red line on the chart), targeting a drop to 1.1259. I will exit the market at 1.1259 and buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound. Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price at 1.1397 is tested twice a row while the MACD indicator is overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect a drop toward the opposite levels of 1.1348 and 1.1259.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.