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Global markets have been swept up in a tariff whirlwind, and the eye of the storm is once again in Washington. Trump, with a stroke of his pen, sends indices plunging or grants them a rebound, but behind the impressive numbers lies an instability that any prudent trader should be ready for. What is driving the S&P 500's rally? Why has the euro become a market darling? Which automakers are on the brink? Why is Apple's "rescue" just a temporary reprieve? This overview breaks down the latest developments and offers specific action ideas.
Trump's roller coaster: why index gains considered selling opportunity, not trend reversal
President Donald Trump is back to his trademark unpredictability. Just when markets desperately seek a foothold, he stirs chaos. Last week, his tariff rhetoric unleashed a storm on Wall Street. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq crashed and rebounded—all in the span of days. In this article, we examine why the latest index correction is no reason for celebration, what lies ahead for the stock market, and why traders should consider selling into strength.
The week started with a worst-case scenario. As high tariffs took effect, investors panicked, triggering a sharp sell-off and fears of a full-scale trade war. But within hours, the situation flipped as Trump announced a 90-day pause on "reciprocal" tariffs for most countries, excluding China.
This unexpected move triggered a powerful market rebound. Indices erased their losses and surged into the green. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 jumped 9.52%, marking the third-largest single-day rally since World War II. The Dow gained over 2,900 points, and the Nasdaq soared by more than 12%. The storm of fear was replaced by a downpour of optimism.
Yet the following day showed that this was merely a temporary relief amid persistent strategic uncertainty. On Thursday, markets crashed again. Thus, the S&P 500 dropped 3.46%, the Nasdaq lost 4.31%, and the Dow shed 1,014 points. Meanwhile, the VIX fear index surged above 50 for the first time since the early 2020s. What is the reason? A fresh escalation in the US-China trade war. Despite the tariff pause for most nations, Beijing was excluded. On the contrary, the Trump administration confirmed that all Chinese imports would be subject to a 145% tariff with no exceptions and delays. In response, China announced retaliatory measures, namely, 125% tariffs on American goods, which formalized a new phase of the conflict between the world's two largest economies.
By Friday, markets once again reversed sharply. Investors reacted to White House comments that Trump was optimistic about a potential deal with China. Additional signals from the Federal Reserve hinting at readiness to step in and support markets further fueled the recovery. As a result, indices rallied again. The S&P 500 rose 1.81%, the Dow Jones gained 619 points (+1.56%), and the Nasdaq advanced 2.06%. As with the earlier drop, this rebound was purely emotional, highlighting how sensitive markets have become to every word from the president.
The week ended on a high note for US equities: the S&P 500 was up 5.7% (its best week since November 2023), the Nasdaq surged 7.3% (best since November 2022), and the Dow gained nearly 5%. However, this rally should not mislead investors. Despite the strong Friday rebound and solid gains in all three major indices, the market remains deeply unstable for a good reason.
Darrell Cronk of Wells Fargo notes that the world is merely at the start of a broader realignment in global trade, and that the current tariff pause should not be seen as a resolution, but rather as a temporary delay before the next phase of escalation. In other words, this is not a signal to buy but a brief calm before the next storm. The policies of recent weeks represent not a strategy for resolution but a step-by-step escalation with minimal predictability. Notably, unpredictability is poison for markets.
As investors oscillated between hopes of de-escalation and fears of escalation, the bond market entered a state of acute nervousness. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries jumped to 4.49%, the sharpest weekly rise since 2001. This is more than just a number. It reflects capital outflows from safe assets and rising inflation expectations.
J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon voiced his concerns over the bond market's state, warning of possible disruption in the Treasury segment. His concerns were echoed by Boston Fed President Susan Collins, who indicated that the Fed is prepared to step in if the situation destabilizes the financial system. Thus, the so-called "Fed put," the unofficial notion that the Fed will support markets in times of distress, has resurfaced.
However, the mere reintroduction of the Fed put into public discourse is a troubling signal. It suggests that markets are no longer seen as resilient to external shocks and cannot function without the hope of central bank intervention. When investors begin relying on such support, the market is no longer healthy as it becomes dependent on external rescue.
It is no surprise, then, that volatility has become the new normal. Economist Adam Ternkvist has noted that weekly S&P 500 swings exceeding 10% are reminiscent of the extreme market shock during the pandemic.
"Roller coaster is not a technical term, but it is probably the best adjective to describe price action across equity markets this week," the expert commented with irony.
The root of this turbulence is not tariffs alone. They are just the tip of the iceberg. Beneath lies growing concern over the state of the US economy. According to the University of Michigan, consumer inflation expectations have hit highs not seen since the early 1980s, and confidence continues to decline. In other words, even if the stock market rises on paper, economic sentiment remains deeply negative.
What is more troubling is that investors increasingly doubt the sustainability of the US market. According to an MLIV Pulse survey conducted April 9–11, 81% of respondents said they would either reduce their US exposure or refrain from increasing it, despite Trump's tariff delay. More than 27% admitted they had already cut their US holdings more than originally planned. So even this impressive rally, which under normal conditions might attract capital inflows, is now seen not as a buy signal but as a convenient exit point. This is no longer about renewed demand for US assets but a tactical retreat from risk under cover of a rally.
Major players share this cautious, if not outright pessimistic, view. Michael Hartnett of Bank of America suggested that, in the absence of a meaningful de-escalation in the conflict and active intervention from the Federal Reserve, the most prudent approach remains to sell into market strength. He recommends shorting the S&P 500 to the 4800 level (it closed Friday at 5363.36) and simultaneously betting on a rally in short-term Treasuries as a hedge against further market turbulence.
His colleague Krit Thomas agrees, pointing out that the market is currently ruled not by fundamentals but by short-term sentiment. The hope for trade peace exists only in headlines, not in real agreements. Everyone is reacting to rumors and soundbites, making stability an illusion.
Thus, the surge in equities is not a trend reversal, but a bounce, not a new bull run, but chaos in disguise. Last week was not about recovery, it reflected a reaction to fear and hope. This is not a rally, it is a flashback to 2020, when markets lived headline to headline. When charts resemble a cardiac monitor in arrhythmia, trading becomes a test of endurance—especially for those still relying on traditional signals.
If you feel disoriented in this chaos, it is not your fault. The market now operates under a logic of fluid reality, where any model holds only until the next tweet. Yet even in such conditions, opportunities remain, but the approach must change. When the old rules no longer apply, those who act flexibly, quickly, and strategically win. Here are some tips for not only surviving this volatility but profiting from it:
– Sell into rallies. Any upward move, especially one triggered by political statements, is not a buy signal, it is an opportunity to take profits or initiate shorts. Until the trade war is de-escalated and the Fed steps in, no sustainable trend will emerge.
– Trade volatility. Use instruments tracking the VIX or assets sensitive to news. In wild swings, profits lie not in direction, but in movement itself.
– Diversify in safe assets. Gold, the yen, and the Swiss franc remain smart choices in an environment of waning trust in the dollar and Treasuries.
– Watch news, not charts. Right now, markets are driven by headlines, not technical factors. A single phrase from the White House may invalidate all support and resistance levels.
– Avoid long-term trades. This market is for tacticians, not investors. Think in days and weeks, not months. Your priority should be capital preservation and short-term opportunity.
EUR against all: how it becomes hero of tariff drama
Amid the global trade turbulence caused by sharp moves from the White House, a surprising winner emerged in the currency market. It is the euro. What once seemed an unlikely scenario is now the new reality: the euro is strengthening amid investor flight from US assets, upending consensus forecasts. In just weeks, the euro posted one of its strongest surges in a decade, stunning skeptics reliant on outdated models.
This article explores why the euro became a safe haven currency in this escalating trade standoff, what is behind its rise, how this affects the EU economy, and what forecasts are shaping up in the coming months. We close with recommendations for traders looking to capitalize on these developments.
Since early April, the euro has risen more than 5% against the dollar, surpassing the 1.14 mark, its highest level in three years and its largest one-day gain in nine years. Last Thursday alone, after Trump's decision to pause tariffs for 90 days, the euro made its biggest leap since 2015. Analysts argue that this is no mere technical bounce as it reflects a fundamental shift.
Earlier this year, forecasts called for the euro to fall toward parity or even lower. Now, currency strategists are scrambling to revise their outlooks.
Kit Juckes of Societe Generale pointed out that cash flows had taken precedence over trade balances in driving market dynamics. According to him, investors are asking a simple question—if the US is actively undermining its own corporate profitability and destabilizing markets, why should the rest of the world keep holding US dollar assets?
Against this backdrop, large-scale capital reallocation becomes logical. Over the past decade, foreign investments in the US have grown nearly fivefold, from $13 trillion to $62 trillion. But now that massive capital is starting to reverse. Repatriation, especially to Europe, where political stability persists, is becoming a powerful driver of the euro's rise. According to Citi, the eurozone holds the largest share of US foreign investment by currency. This explains not only the direction but the scale of the flow. Unlike short-term speculation, this is about systemic reallocation, which is setting a long-term uptrend.
Given all this, many analysts are revising their forecasts for the euro. Currency strategist Vasileios Gkionakis sees EUR/USD at 1.25 as "entirely plausible," especially if the euro inflows and German spending continue rising.
It is interesting to note that the euro is not only strengthening against the US dollar — it has also hit a 17-month high against the British pound and is currently trading near an 11-year peak against the Chinese yuan, and its trade-weighted index is sitting at record levels. This is not just a local rebound; we are witnessing a shift in the euro's global status. While such a scenario might be familiar for the yen or the Swiss franc, for the euro, this is uncharted territory. Even ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau couldn't resist a touch of irony: "Thank God, Europe created the euro 25 years ago."
But as with any growth story, there are downsides. A strong euro poses a challenge for exporters who have long benefited from a weaker currency. As economist Mathieu Savary points out, during global downturns, the euro's weakness has traditionally acted as a shock absorber for the European economy. That buffer is now fading — and this could hit corporate earnings and EU equity indices hard, especially in export-driven sectors like automotives and heavy industry.
Still, the market seems to view the euro as a safe haven amid the chaos surrounding the dollar and US Treasuries. The yield spread between 10-year US and German government bonds widened by 50 basis points in just a week — another sign that investors are favoring German reliability over American noise.
This shift is fueling a new market paradox: a currency that traditionally weakened in times of global stress is now showing resilience. The euro is gaining ground where it used to falter. Even the most hardened skeptics are being forced to admit that old models no longer apply. Once considered a victim of trade wars, the euro has become a beneficiary. Each new round of American isolationism now plays into the euro's hands, with a paradigm shift unfolding in real time.
This transformation also opens up new opportunities. For traders, euro strength is a clear signal. First, amid capital repatriation and demand for a safe haven, the pair could continue its climb towards 1.17–1.20 and beyond. Second, as European exporters feel the heat, it is reasonable to expect a pullback in EU equity indices, particularly in cyclical sectors. Third, euro-denominated bond demand may rise, creating fresh opportunities in the debt market. And finally, euro-based currency pairs such as EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF are becoming increasingly attractive for short-term trading.
In short, the euro has not just recovered — it has entered a new trajectory. It has become a reflection of growing mistrust in US policy, a symbol of capital repatriation, and — unexpectedly — a new pillar of currency stability. It may not last forever. But right now, the euro is not just the winner of the week. It is the market's frontrunner amid global disappointment in the dollar.
If you do not want to sit on the sidelines watching this trend unfold, now is the time to act. Do not miss your moment — open an account with InstaForex, download our mobile app, and start capitalizing on the strong euro today!
Trump's tariffs could cost auto industry $100 billion
While markets digest the latest tweets and announcements from the White House, one sector has already found itself in the crosshairs of the tariff war. The 25% tariffs on imported cars imposed by Donald Trump remain in force, despite the partial rollback of other duties. And the consequences of this targeted strike could be far more far-reaching than they appear at first glance. In this article, we will break down why tariff pressure may trigger the biggest crisis in the auto industry in over a decade, which companies are most exposed, what to expect from auto stocks in the coming months, and how traders can not only weather this volatility but turn it into real trading opportunities.
Let's start with the numbers. According to Boston Consulting Group, the total global cost of tariffs to the auto industry could reach $110–160 billion per year. This is not just about production costs — it is about a full rewiring of the auto economy, from suppliers and assembly lines to dealership pricing. In the US alone, cost increases are projected at $107.7 billion, with nearly half — $41.9 billion — landing on Detroit's Big Three: General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis. On top of that, new tariffs on auto components are set to come into effect on May 3.
Ironically, the tariffs will not just hit foreign brands. American factories heavily reliant on imported parts are also caught in the crossfire. In the era of globalization, localizing production often means slapping on a new label rather than building a supply chain from scratch. As a result, even vehicles proudly assembled in Tennessee or Michigan could see price hikes nearly equal to their imported counterparts. Goldman Sachs estimates the final price tag for US consumers will rise by $2,000–$4,000 per new vehicle. Cox Automotive warns that imported cars in the US could jump by as much as $6,000, US-assembled vehicles by $3,600, and another $300–$500 could be tacked on due to earlier tariffs on metals.
Auto manufacturers are now scrambling to save face and market share. Hyundai has pledged not to raise prices for two months. Ford and Stellantis are rolling out special offers for its customers. Jaguar Land Rover has gone a step further, temporarily suspending exports to the US — seemingly deciding it is better not to get involved at all. But these are just temporary relief moves. According to Telemetry, automakers have reserves of tariff-free vehicles that will last no more than 6 to 8 weeks. After that: a tariff cliff and a sharp price reset.
How will this affect sales? Directly. The market is bracing for a drop in annual vehicle sales by 2 million units across the US and Canada. And this is not just about weakening demand — it is a disruption of the entire business landscape. Expect to see certain models pulled from showrooms, product lines streamlined, and less profitable production facilities shut down. These effects will ripple across the labor force, adjacent industries, and of course, shareholders.
"What we're seeing now is a structural shift, driven by policy, that's likely to be long-lasting," economist Felix Stellmaszek said. "This may well be the most consequential year for the auto industry in history — not just because of immediate cost pressures, but because it's forcing fundamental change in how and where the industry builds." In other words, the old mantra "assemble where it's cheapest" no longer holds. Manufacturing is being forced back home, but at a steep cost. That leaves automakers with a choice: raise prices or cut profits. Either way, shareholders will not be pleased.
Markets have already started to react. Ford shares are showing persistent weakness, and traders are beginning to deploy defensive strategies. The greatest risks fall on import-heavy brands and auto parts suppliers — they will be at the epicenter of the chain reaction. European and Asian automakers with heavy exposure to the US are also on the chopping block. Even those who pride themselves on being "agile" will face rising logistical costs, rerouted supply chains, and revised pricing strategies.
No one is fully insulated from the tariff impact, not even electric vehicle makers or niche brands. In this environment, investors are already pricing in weaker financials for the second quarter, and some individual names could start exhibiting crisis-like volatility.
For traders, this is not a time for panic — it is a time for action. The ongoing repricing opens up both short- and medium-term trading opportunities. First and foremost: look for sell opportunities. Target automakers with high import dependency, those most vulnerable to tariff shocks, and stocks that already appear overvalued. Second: exploit the divergence between local and international players, particularly if the latter struggle to adapt quickly. And third: volatility itself becomes an asset — range-bound trading, trading the news, and through breakout moves can all deliver solid returns.
Apple wins battle, but not war: what's behind Trump's tariff concession and what traders should expect next
Once again, Apple finds itself at the heart of a global standoff, caught between US trade policy and China's economic interests. Amid rising tensions in the tariff war, Donald Trump's decision to exempt key Apple products from the 125% import duty came as a surprising relief. But is this a true policy shift or just a temporary pause before the next wave of pressure? In this article, we will unpack what lies behind this exemption, how it may affect Apple and its stock, what risks remain, and how traders can navigate the current landscape.
Let's start with the numbers. Last week, the Trump administration removed a range of goods from the 125% tariff list, including smartphones, laptops, processors, and displays. That means iPhones, iPads, Macs, Apple Watches, and AirTags—all the products that generate Apple's revenue—are now temporarily shielded. This represents over $100 billion worth of Chinese imports, nearly a quarter of China's total exports to the United States in 2024. The move came as a surprise: just days earlier, Apple had been preparing for the worst, retooling logistics on short notice and ramping up iPhone assembly in India.
Investors exhaled—rightfully so. According to analyst Amit Daryanani, without the exemption, Apple would have faced "material cost inflation," likely triggering device price hikes and a blow to demand. Apple stock had already fallen 11% since early April, and a full-scale tariff hit would have escalated that decline into a deeper correction driven by a fundamental shock.
But let's not breathe easy just yet. Strip away the sentiment and the picture becomes clear: this is not a policy reversal, it is a stay of execution. Over the weekend, Trump confirmed that the exemption is temporary. The White House's rhetoric has not changed, and another wave of restrictions still looms. Tariff pressure has not disappeared—it has just been postponed.
What is more, the next move is already in sight and it could be just as painful. A new investigation into semiconductor imports is expected to begin in the coming weeks, likely resulting in sector-wide tariffs. And it will not stop at chips themselves—any product containing them could be targeted. That puts Apple right back in the crosshairs, especially given that 87% of iPhones, 80% of iPads, and 60% of Macs are still produced in China.
From a geopolitical standpoint, the situation remains challenging for the company. Apple derives around 17% of its revenue from the Chinese market and has a significant presence in the country, from flagship stores to logistics hubs. If Washington keeps up the pressure, retaliation from Beijing cannot be ruled out. In the past, China has restricted the use of iPhones among government employees and conducted antitrust investigations. Given Apple's deep reliance on Chinese manufacturing, even unofficial barriers could translate into billions in lost revenue.
What is Apple doing? It is trying to diversify. Today, nearly all Apple Watch and AirPods units are made in Vietnam, while parts of iPad and Mac production have moved to Malaysia and Thailand. India is also ramping up: over 30 million iPhones were assembled there in 2024, and that number is expected to grow. Still, fully replacing Chinese capacity in the near term is virtually impossible. The level of technological integration and scale of operations in China remains unmatched. In other words, Apple does not yet have a Plan B that can match China in terms of efficiency and volume.
For the market, this means one thing: volatility remains elevated. Even with the current exemption in place, risks persist for both the business and the stock price. Any shift in tone from the White House, a new investigation, or a leak about upcoming tariffs could send Apple shares back down. Yes, Apple is still fundamentally strong, with a stellar balance sheet, high demand, and a loyal global customer base. However, in an environment where policy hits faster than a new product cycle, it is not just about what you sell, it is also about where you make it.
So, what should traders do with all this? First, the current bounce can be used for a short-term trade to the upside, especially if the White House maintains its current stance over the next few days. However, holding long positions for too long carries risk. Second, keep a close eye on any developments regarding a potential semiconductor investigation. If it is launched, that is almost a guaranteed trigger for a new wave of downside, especially for stocks tied to China and chip supply chains. Third, a smart approach here is to trade the range and focus on volatility. The market is running headline to headline, and that momentum creates prime opportunities for quick, well-timed trades.
If you are ready to take advantage of the moment, open a trading account with InstaForex. For more convenient and efficient trading, download our mobile app and stay connected to the markets 24/7!
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