Trade analysis and advice for the euro currency

The price test of 1.1397 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. Given the lack of Eurozone statistics, I decided not to buy the euro—and that turned out to be the right decision, as there was no real upward movement.

Today, during the U.S. trading session, attention will be focused on speeches from FOMC members Thomas Barkin and Christopher Waller. The key interest lies in their interpretation of the latest inflation data and possible scenarios for future monetary policy. The market will closely analyze every statement, aiming to assess whether Federal Reserve officials are leaning more dovish or hawkish. Any signals indicating potential rate cuts—or a pause in tightening—could trigger significant volatility in financial markets.

Since there are no other economic reports besides Fed commentary, if their statements are generic, market volatility could drop considerably.

As for the intraday strategy, I'll mainly focus on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today upon reaching 1.1416 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1500. At 1.1500, I plan to exit the market and also consider reversing the trade by selling the euro, aiming for a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. The euro's upside today hinges on the continuation of the current bullish trend. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1348, when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. You can expect a rally toward 1.1416 and 1.1500.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1348 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1259, where I intend to exit and open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move back up). Downward pressure could return if the Fed members take a hawkish stance. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if it tests 1.1416 twice, with the MACD in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1348 and 1.1259 can then be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or area to manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or area to manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – For market entry, it's essential to use overbought and oversold zones as a guide.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of important economic reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't follow proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market mood are usually a losing strategy for intraday traders.